The Celtics have not even played eight percent of their schedule. They are only beginning to discover who they are and what they can become. At this stage of the season, statistics can be extremely misleading because of the small sample sizes attached to them.
Some numbers are still telling though. Here are five early-season Celtics statistics that could be a big deal.
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1. Team offensive rebound rate: 32.2 percent (ranked fifth)
Is it crazy to believe the Celtics, who rarely secured second-chance opportunities last season, have become one of the best teams in that same category overnight? Maybe, but they are clearly crashing with a new purpose. After Joe Mazzulla emphasized offensive rebounds throughout training camp, the Celtics have shot up the leaderboard in that category from 27th place last season.
The Celtics added some willing rebounders, including Oshae Brissett and Jrue Holiday. Mazzulla’s increased focus on the offensive glass has also unleashed some of the returning players, including the 37-year-old Al Horford. In his 17th NBA season, the big man currently has the highest offensive rebound rate of his career. Through six games, Horford has nearly tripled his offensive rebound average from 1.4 per 36 minutes to 4.0. He has had multiple offensive rebounds in every game so far. Based on his track record, he could be due to fall back some in that category. Still, based on how he’s attacking the glass, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least flirt with a career-high offensive rebound rate for the full season. He’s never been a bully like this before.
Just about everybody except Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have contributed to the Celtics’ pursuit of additional second-chance points. Mazzulla’s lessons have altered his team’s approach. He wanted Boston to develop ways to win on off-3-point shooting nights. This is one such fix.
2. Team assist percentage: 51.9 percent (ranked last)
More assists don’t always correlate to better offense. The Celtics entered Tuesday ranked second in offensive efficiency. They have added post-ups and offensive rebounds to their attack without losing any of their 3-point prowess. With the amount of spacing their shooters generate, their best option is sometimes to capitalize on a 1-on-1 mismatch.
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The Celtics could still need more ball movement. Stagnation, which has long been this group’s enemy, has popped up as an issue again at times early this season. Over the final four minutes of overtime during Monday night’s loss to the Timberwolves, the Celtics passed the ball a total of three times in the half court excluding inbounds passes. They went 1 of 5 from the field during that time; the one make was a breakaway bucket by Tatum.
Even when everything’s humming, as it has been through most of the first six games, the Celtics roster just isn’t teeming with elite passers. That should be fine most of the time. They have shooters everywhere. Teams will have plenty of difficulty matching up against all of their offensive threats. The Boston offense is dangerous.
It has stalled out deep in the playoffs during consecutive seasons now. Kristaps Porziņģis and Holiday could help solve that problem, but the team could need time to figure out exactly how to employ all the new pieces during the highest-leverage moments. Can the Celtics avoid such stretches of disjointed play? Can they ignore the urge to play hero ball at the wrong times?
It’s a new team now. A new roster. A new fit. Still, the mission should be the same: Minimizing the moments of bad decision-making and staying solid for as long as possible. That won’t always need to come with big assist totals, but the Celtics need to stay committed to playing team basketball no matter what’s going on.
Jaylen Brown and the other starters have given Joe Mazzulla a lot of options. (Maddie Schroeder/Getty Images)3. Starting lineup net rating: Plus-37.3
Among all lineups with at least 60 minutes played, the Celtics starting lineup ranks first in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Boston’s first unit owns a plus-37.3 net rating over 72 minutes played. The second-best lineup (surprisingly, one of Houston’s) has a net rating of plus-16.8 over 109 minutes played.
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Though the early-season numbers have been beefed up by dominant wins against Indiana, which was without Tyrese Haliburton, and Washington, which could be the league’s worst team, the success of the Celtics’ starting lineup is real. Their guards, Derrick White and Holiday, can both protect the rim. Their big man, Porziņģis, can shoot with accuracy from far beyond the 3-point arc. The starters’ versatility gives Joe Mazzulla a long menu of options. At times, he has switched Porziņģis onto guards. He has used Holiday as the primary defender against power forwards like Julius Randle. It must be fun to coach a group with so much flexibility.
The Celtics still need to learn more about how all the pieces fit. They have occasionally gone away from Porziņģis too often, as they did down the stretch against Minnesota. He should usually be more involved than he was in crunchtime of that game. Still, his skill set has made the game easier for his new teammates. Seven of Brown’s 17 assists so far have gone to Porziņģis. The big man’s efficiency (69.9-percent true shooting) has been stellar so far with more talent around him.
When the Celtics launched a pursuit of Holiday, they were hoping the move would give their closing lineup a lift. The closers are also the starters. The early returns suggest the two new starters complement the other three players in a loaded lineup.
4. Derrick White’s 3-point shooting: 57.9 percent
White has only played in four games so far. He has only attempted 19 3-pointers. He will need to keep proving that last season’s outside shooting improvements were real.
At this stage, they sure feel real. White has pulled up for deep 3-pointers in transition. He has searched for his own offense in big moments. He looks like the confidence he built up last season has carried over. Opponents that used to leave him open now appear afraid to leave him alone, even if that means allowing one of the Celtics’ stars to go 1-on-1 without much help.
If White continues to knock down 3-pointers as he has since the beginning of last season, the Boston starting lineup won’t have anywhere for defenders to hide. Over the first six games, the Celtics’ shot-making has been overwhelming. They lead the league with 7.2 made pull-up 3-pointers per game (Sacramento ranks second with 5.7 per game). On such attempts, Boston has shot a sparkling 40.6 percent to rank third in the league. That’s almost certainly due for a dip. Over the last decade, only the 2015-16 Warriors have finished over 40 percent on pull-up 3-point attempts. Still, the Celtics have enough threats to stretch opponents to the breaking point, especially if White remains a knockdown shooter.
5. Team net rating with Jayson Tatum on the bench: Minus-4.9
New season, old problem for the Celtics, who often struggle when Tatum hits the bench. Theoretically, the team should be more equipped to thrive during those minutes with Brown, Porziņģis and Holiday all capable of carrying the offense in stretches. That hasn’t really materialized.
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The Celtics have been outscored by 10 points during Tatum’s 75 minutes on the bench. That’s a tiny sample size. It involves garbage time in two blowout wins. There’s a chance the Celtics will eventually turn this trend around. Last season, they had their best-ever net rating during non-Tatum minutes, outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions without him. It would be a win for them to repeat that, especially if they can keep scorching teams whenever he steps onto the court. And they have destroyed opponents during his playing time so far. Entering Tuesday’s games, he ranked fourth in overall plus-minus (plus-97) behind a trio of Nuggets.
The falloff without Tatum is nothing to be overly concerned with at this point. The Celtics are 5-1. They own the league’s best overall net rating. Mazzulla is still likely figuring out how to maximize a new-look rotation. He has plenty of lineup configurations to try when Tatum’s not on the court. Should Brown typically serve as the lead ballhandler during those stretches? Should White or Holiday? Should the Celtics feature Porziņģis when Tatum’s out and try to get the 7-foot-3 center going?
The guess here is that Mazzulla will eventually uncover solutions that allow the team to at least tread water without Tatum in the game. Maybe it won’t matter much either way. The Nuggets won a title last season even though they regularly cratered without Nikola Jokić and the Warriors built a dynasty while routinely tumbling without Stephen Curry on the court. It’s hard to thrive without one of the league’s best players, even if his supporting cast is great. The Celtics have shown that even during a promising start.
(Top photo of Kristaps Porziņģis, Jayson Tatum, and Derrick White: Maddie Schroeder / Getty Images)
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